Zone 5 and 6, a resurgence in popularity

Outer London is starting to experience a resurgence in popularity as more people head to Zone 5 for cheaper homes with reasonable commutes. 

Over the last decade average house prices in inner London have grown at nearly 8% each year, whilst outer London is not far behind with a growth of nearly 4% per annum. With house prices around half the price of central London, but growth levels still attractive, it’s easy to understand why outer London is becoming ever more attractive.

Zone 5 and 6 offer great value as it only takes on average 15 minutes longer to get into central London than in Zone 2 and yet house prices are, at £379,685, around half the price. However there is quite a large disparity in prices across Zone 5; prices are as high as £640,805 in leafy Pinner, but at the other end of the scale, Dagenham East has the lowest prices of £214,544.  Part of the reason for the range is the difference in travel time across the region, with travellers from Buckhurst Hill taking just over half an hour to get in to central London, whereas commuters from Hatton Cross should settle down with a good book for their 55 minute journey. 

 

Zone House Price Avg Travel Time
Zone 2 £722,820 22
Zone 3 £487,862 29
Zone 4 £421,788 33
Zone 5 £379,685 38
Zone 6 £459,918 42

Becontree tops the list of best value locations in Zone 5 based on house price adjusted for travel time, with prices of £242,000 yet a travel time of just 32 minutes.  Property prices in Enfield Town are over  £100,000 more than Becontree, yet with a below average travel time of under 35 minutes it is our number ten best value location.

Bush Hill Park has average prices of £377,913, and so comes in sixteenth in our rank of pure house prices. However, when adjusted for travel time it comes in at a remarkable eighth, suggesting very good value for money.  Similarly Buckhurst Hill with average prices of £479,154 is ranked 25th out of 30, but with a travel time of just over half an hour moves up to 18th place.

On first glance it may be surprising that prices go up in Zone 6 and are nearly as high as Zone 3. This would seem to go against all we know about house prices and travel time - we have estimated that in London every 10 % reduction in commuting times can cause house prices to increase by 6%. However, this is where location location location really comes into play. Zone 6 really falls on the boundary between London and “the country”, with the housing stock definitely more suburban in character with more large 1930’s semis than flats.  

Romford is the cheapest location in zone 6 at just £220,679 with a travel time of half an hour. Although Loughton is double the price at £473,000 it ranks ninth because of a 32 minutes travel time (up from 16 based solely on house price.  Similarly Debden seems fairly highly priced at £584,000 and is ranked 21st. However, taking into account a travel time of just 36 minutes, it becomes much more fairly valued and ranks 16.

The popularity of outer London is likely to continue to grow in the coming years and particular areas, such as Becontree and Bush Hill Park, will be areas to watch. With great value for money and reasonable commuter times it is no surprise that more people are heading to Zone 5 and 6.  

 

 

Zone 5 Average House Price House Price Rank TT (Mins) Zone 5  Average House Price Rank adjusted for TT TT (Mins)
Dagenham East £214,544 1 36.5 Becontree £241,135 1 31.5
Dagenham Heathway £223,225 2 34.25 Daegenham Heathway £223,225 2 34.25
Chadwell Heath £236,073 3 33 Chadwell Heath £236,073 3 33
Becontree £241,135 4 31.5 Dagenham East £214,544 4 36.5
Haton Cross £249,333 5 54.75 Southbury £273,326 5 37.5
Southbury £273,326 6 37.5 Northolt £320,522 6 34.5
West Croydon £279,250 7 44.25 Harrow on the Hill £364,200 7 31.5
Hounslow West £290,800 8 51.75 Bush Hill Park £377,913 8 32.25
Northolt £320,522 9 34.5 West Croydon £279,250 9 44.25
Harrow and Wealdstone £329,062 10 39.5 Enfield Town £356,724 10 34.75

 

Zone 6 Avg House Price House Price Rank TT (Min) Zone 6 Avg House Price House Price adjusted for TT TT (Min)
Romford £220,679 1 30.75 Romford £220,679 1 30.75
Turkey Street £247,208 2 35.5 Turkey Street £247,208 2 35.5
Harold Wood £264,250 3 40.75 Elm Park £271,707 3 39.5
Elm Park £271,707 4 39.5 Harold Wood £264,250 4 40.75
Upminster Bridge £301,172 5 43.25 Gidea Park £348,128 5 36
Hornchurch £307,393 6 41.5 Hornchurch £307,393 6 41.5
Uxbridge £315,265 7 51.5 Upminster Bridge £301,172 7 43.25
Gidea Park £348,128 8 36 Upminster £410,114 8 37
Ruislip £362,515 9 43.25 Loughton £473,297 9 32.25
Northwood Hills £385,394 10 40.75 Ruislip £362,515 10 43.25