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Residential Research

Q2 2024 Residential Forecasts

17/05/2024

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UK house prices fell in 2023 and transaction levels dropped to a 12-year low, largely reflecting stretched mortgage affordability. However, the start of 2024 has shown signs of improving sentiment and affordability. We expect the improvement to build over the year.

In the rental market, values grew at a record pace last year, but momentum is slowing and affordability constraints will limit further rental growth.
Our latest report sets out our forecasts for house prices, transaction volumes, and rental values across the UK for the next five years.

What to Expect

House Prices Overview

In 2023 across the UK, house prices fell by 1.6% in 2023, according to the ONS. The largest falls were recorded in East of England and London, whereas prices remained broadly static in the North.

The overview for house prices in 2024, show tentative sign of growth. Nationwide and Halifax reported that the average UK house prices increased by 1.4% and 0.4% respectively, in the first three months of 2024.

Sales Volumes

Increasing mortgage rates meant mortgaged sales fell the most. The number of first time buyers and home movers buying with a mortgage fell by 22% and 26% respectively, in 2023.

Three positive forward-looking indicators point to a gradual recovery in sales volumes in 2024, which will be weighted towards the second half of the year.

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Jen Siebrits

Head of UK Research

Phone +44 2071822066

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Scott Cabot

Head of Residential Research

Phone +44 2071822362

Email

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Michael McGill

Associate Director

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Q2 2024 Residential Forecasts

Download Full Report

What to Expect

House Prices Overview

Sales Volumes

Residential Research

Contacts

Jen Siebrits

Scott Cabot

Michael McGill