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Residential Research

Q3 2024 Residential Forecasts

17/05/2024

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Sentiment has steadily improved in the sales market this year, which was further bolstered by the recent base rate cut. With a further cut forecast towards the end of the year, mortgage rates will continue to edge lower. As such, buyer budgets will improve which has led us to upgrade our previous forecast for house price growth.

Despite an ongoing supply shortage, affordability constraints and a lower rate of headline inflation the pace of rental growth will continue to slow. Nonetheless, it will take time for these factors to fully feed through to rents meaning growth will remain relatively strong this year.

What to Expect

House Prices Overview

Across the UK, house prices rose by 3.4% in the first half of 2024, according to the ONS. This is a relatively stronger recovery than many had expected and takes the year-on-year growth to 2.7%.

Mortgage rates have gradually fallen since peaking in August 2023. The expected cut in the base rate had a significant impact on swap rates, and cuts to mortgage rates have followed suit.

We forecast UK house prices wll increase by 2.1% in 2024. This is an upgrade from the 1.0% in our last forecast.

Sales Volumes

H1 sales volumes higher than last year but below the long-term average. There have been just under 530,000 transactions in the first half of 2024. This is marginally higher than the first half of 2023, highlighting the slight improvement in buyer confidence over the last year.

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Contacts

Jen Siebrits

Head of UK Research

Phone +44 2071822066

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Scott Cabot

Head of Residential Research

Phone +44 2071822362

Email

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Michael McGill

Associate Director

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Q3 2024 Residential Forecasts

Download our Full Forecast Report

What to Expect

House Prices Overview

Sales Volumes

Residential Research

Contacts

Jen Siebrits

Scott Cabot

Michael McGill